Hungarian security analyst: Russia-Ukraine war will not end in 2024

01/02/2024 / By Laura Harris

A Hungarian top security expert predicts that the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to end in 2024.

In a recent interview with Index, a Hungarian news outlet, top security expert Péter Tarjányi said the upcoming U.S. elections could influence the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. He added that the outcome of the election will impact the stance of the West on financing Ukrainian forces.

According to Tarjányi, the geopolitical landscape is uncertain. He suggested that the United States and Europe might find themselves dealing with armed conflicts on multiple fronts simultaneously in the years to come. In other words, both sides are now engaged in a strategic waiting game.

Tarjányi, who was the director of operations for Hungary’s Counter-Terrorism Center (TEK) before founding his private cyber-defense firm in 1998, describes the year 2023 as a year of surprises and disappointments. He pointed out that the reliance of the U.S. on economic sanctions against Russia and expectations of a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive did not yield the desired outcomes.

He noted that one of the most startling revelations was the emergence of a military bloc consisting of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, aligned against the West – a development previously concealed to some extent. Tarjányi drew attention to the possibility of armed conflicts involving major global blocs. He suggested that the South China Sea poses a significant concern for the U.S. and its allies, while Europe must remain vigilant against potential Russian aggression, necessitating an independent defense strategy.

Military analysts predict a prolonged struggle between Russia and Ukraine in 2024

As the Ukraine conflict enters its third year, BBC asked three military analysts their opinion on how events may unfold in the coming 12 months.

Barbara Zanchetta from the Department of War Studies at King’s College London supported the claims of Tarjányi. She claimed that the war in Ukraine is expected to continue indefinitely due to the political strength of Vladimir Putin.

The battleground situation remains uncertain, with Ukraine’s winter offensive appearing to stall but Russia not achieving a breakthrough either. So, the outcome now depends on the decisions of Washington and Brussels. Moreover, support from Western countries started to weaken due to their political issues, while the economic aid of the European Union seemed tied to the stance of Hungary.

Similarly, Michael Clarke, the former director general of the Royal United Services Institute, predicts a prolonged and traumatic conflict as industrial-age warfare reshapes economies. The defense budget of Russia has tripled since 2021, reaching 30 percent of the government spending in 2024. Both sides are capable of fighting to a standstill, with strategic initiatives likely to determine the course of the conflict. Clarke anticipates 2024 as a year of consolidation for both Kyiv and Moscow, with a strategic offensive by Russia unlikely until spring 2025.

Ben Hodges, the former commanding general of the United States Army Europe, dismisses the notion of a decisive breakthrough by Russia and emphasizes Ukraine’s fight for survival. Hodges expects Ukraine to reconstitute worn-down units, improve recruitment, increase weapon production and counter Russian electronic warfare capabilities. The delivery of U.S.-made F16 fighter jets in early summer is expected to enhance the air defense capabilities of Ukraine.

Moreover, Hodges identifies Crimea as the decisive terrain and predicts Ukraine will intensify pressure on Russian forces in the region. With limited resources, both sides face logistical challenges, but Hodges underscores the fragility of the Russian logistics system under continuous pressure from Ukraine. The strategic importance of Crimea makes it a focal point for Ukraine to make Russian occupation untenable.

In short, all these analysts predict nothing but a prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine this 2024. (Related: Hungarian official: Pro-war EU wants Ukraine conflict to continue.)

Visit WWIII.news for more stories about the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

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